In 2006, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association (ELFA) introduced the Monthly Leasing and Finance Index survey, now titled the CapEx Finance Index (CFI). The monthly survey asks a cross-section of equipment finance companies about changes in new business volume and industry financial conditions. Those responses are aggregated into a series of statistics that track the overall health of the equipment finance industry.

The CFI has become an integral part of the economic data release cycle and is widely covered by major news outlets. The survey has been linked to the Census’s Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories, and Orders (the durable goods report), and is generally released one day before the Census report.

ELFA commissioned Access/Macro to explore the statistical relationship between data in the CFI survey and broader economic indicators. This new report, which will come out in the summer of 2025, analyzes the capacity for various CFI measures to improve forecasting of key government statistics. The analysis finds strong evidence that many CFI indicators improve forecasting models of major economic statistics, validating that the equipment financing sector is the backbone of American industry.