Monthly Confidence Index: April 2026

Washington, DC, April 16, 2026 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) today released its April 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market is 54.6, a decrease from 61.0 in March, and the lowest level since May 2025 in the wake of the Trump administration’s announcement of universal tariffs. Comments from some MCI survey respondents indicate the impact of the war in Iran on their outlook. The index provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion equipment finance industry. 

April 2026 Survey Results:

  • Business Conditions – When assessing the next four months, 11.8%% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, down from 29.2% in March. Those who believe business conditions will remain the same increased to 58.8% from 54.2% the previous month. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen increased to 29.4% from 16.7% in March.
  • Capex Demand – For the next four months, 10.5% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (down from 37.5% in March). Additionally, 68.4% expect demand to remain the same (up from 50% last month), and 21.1% believe demand will decline (up from 12.5% in March).  
  • Access to Capital – Over the next four months, 31.6% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, an increase from 25% in March. The majority (63.2%) anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 70.8% the previous month. Those expecting “less” access to capital increased to 5.3%, up from 4.2% in March.
  • Employment – Regarding employment over the next four months, 42.1% of executives expect to hire more employees, an increase from 37.5% in March. Also, 52.6% foresee no change in headcount (down from 58.3% last month), and 5.3% expect to hire fewer employees, up from 4.2% in March.
  • U.S. Economy – Of the respondents, none evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” unchanged from March; 94.4% assess it as “fair,” down from 100% last month; and 5.6% evaluate it as “poor,” up from none in March.
  • Economic Outlook – Over the next six months, 15.8% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a decrease from 20.8% in March. Another 47.4% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” down from 54.2% last month; and 36.8% believe economic conditions will worsen, an increase from 25% in March.
  • Business Development Spending – Over the next six months, 47.4% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, a decrease from 50% in March. Those who believe there will be “no change” in business development spending increased to 52.6% (from 50% in March), and none believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month. 

 

April 2026 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:


Bank, Small Ticket

“The year has started off with a strong first quarter of originations and growth of the portfolio. We are optimistic of the opportunities that we will find strategy to execute on, but we are paying strong attention to portfolio performance and increasing bankruptcies to date in 2026.”
David Normandin, CLFP, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Captive, Small Ticket

“I remain optimistic about the near-term outlook for the equipment finance industry and the broader economy. Continued investment in productivity and modernization is creating favorable conditions for growth.”
Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Isuzu Finance of America, Inc.

Independent, Middle Ticket

“War in Iran has begun a global economic recessionary movement as many eastern nations lack access to oil and natural gas, which are major components to many sectors in their economies and cannot be readily replaced. Expect international markets to slide first, then contagion to U.S. markets.”
Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO, Elevex Capital

Independent, Small Ticket

“The war in Iran is causing economic challenges for some people and businesses. The sooner it is over, the better.”
James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC


Survey Demographics


Market Segment

  • Bank  63.2%
  • Captive  21%
  • Independent  15.8%
  • Other  0%


Market Segments Based on Transaction Size of New Business Volume

  • Large-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size Over $5 Million)  5.3%
  • Middle-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $250,000 – $5 Million)  42.1%
  • Small-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $25,000 – $249,999)  52.6%
  • Micro-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Less Than $25,000)  0%


Organization Size

  • Under $50 Million  5%
  • $50 Million – $250 Million  10%
  • $250 Million – $1 Billion  35%
  • Over $1 Billion  50%


MCIChart_Apr26