Monthly Confidence Index: July 2026

With the current geopolitical events, it is very difficult to have sustained confidence in the near future of equipment finance or, more broadly, the U.S. economy in general. This is a ride that most want off of already. Just when it looks like there may be a resolution, things change and we are all waiting for the other shoe to drop.

“I remain optimistic about the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy, supported by the continued strength of the labor market and resilient consumer spending. Low unemployment and steady job creation have helped sustain household confidence, while consumers continue to demonstrate a willingness to spend, providing an important foundation for economic growth. Although interest rates and inflation continue to be closely monitored, the underlying fundamentals of the domestic economy remain encouraging. That said, I recognize that international developments—including geopolitical tensions, global trade dynamics, and supply chain disruptions—have the potential to influence economic conditions and market sentiment. While these external factors warrant careful attention, I believe the strength of the U.S. consumer and labor market positions the economy well to navigate potential headwinds.”

Inflation and the global economic environment will be depressing capex for new revenue ventures in the near term. Decisions are on hold until after the elections in November.

I’m optimistic about where the industry is headed for a number of reasons. We’re in the midst of one of the strongest capital expenditure cycles we’ve seen in years, creating sustained demand across the markets we serve. At the same time, institutional investors and private credit providers continue to recognize the value of short-duration, cash-flowing equipment finance assets, bringing additional capital into the market as banks become more selective. Perhaps the biggest catalyst is technology. AI is leveling the playing field, giving independent finance companies the same capabilities that were once reserved for the largest financial institutions. It’s helping us make faster, more informed credit decisions, streamline documentation, improve pricing, and strengthen fraud detection. That said, the same technology is making fraud more sophisticated, and abundant capital can tempt some lenders to sacrifice pricing discipline in pursuit of volume.

[I’m] not that optimistic. Various state regulations have strained creativity and choked off the ability to operate efficiently and effectively.

While the consumer may be under some pressure, business capex seems to be fairly resilient to economic and geopolitical headwinds. We're seeing steady activity across the market.