Monthly Confidence Index: August 2026
Washington, DC, August 20, 2026 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) today released its August 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market is 62.4, easing from the July index of 63.7, but within the elevated range of the past six months. The index provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion equipment finance industry.
August 2026 Survey Results:
- Business Conditions – When assessing the next four months, 26.1% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, up from 22.7% in July. Those who believe business conditions will remain the same decreased to 65.2 from 72.7% the previous month. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen increased to 8.7% from 4.6% in July.
- Capex Demand – For the next four months, 26.1% of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (down from 28.6% in July). Additionally, 73.9% expect demand to remain the same (up from 66.7% last month), and none believe demand will decline (down from 4.6% in July).
- Access to Capital – Over the next four months, 33.3% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, 66.7% anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, and none expect “less” access to capital, all unchanged from July.
- Employment – Regarding employment over the next four months, 42.9% of executives expect to hire more employees, a decrease from 54.6% in July. Also, 52.4% foresee no change in headcount (up from 36.4% last month), and 4.8% expect to hire fewer employees (down from 9.1% in July).
- U.S. Economy – Of the respondents, 4.8% evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” down from 15% in July; 95.2% assess it as “fair,” up from 80% last month; and none evaluate it as “poor,” down from 5% in July.
- Economic Outlook – Over the next six months, 18.2% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a decrease from 22.7% in July. Another 59.1% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” down from 63.6% last month; and 22.7% believe economic conditions will worsen, an increase from 13.6% in July.
- Business Development Spending – Over the next six months, 40.9% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, 59.1% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, and none believe there will be a decrease in spending, all unchanged from the previous month.
August 2026 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:
As recent activity reporting illustrates, new business volume is increasing and portfolio performance is good. While uncertainty in the economy, rates, politics and world events continues, business volume and performance is a true indicator of the market’s view of the future and it is positive. We have experienced a strong first half of the year and expect the second half to be strong for our business at Wintrust.
I'm pessimistic on the economy and bullish on our industry — those aren't in conflict; they're the same thesis viewed from two ends. Equipment doesn't stop wearing out because the macro picture gets complicated; what changes is how it gets financed, and a rising-rate, high-inflation environment is where true leasing earns its keep. My number one concern is supply chain risk, and I don't think our industry has priced it: lessees whose equipment sits idle waiting on a part still owe the payment, and uptime is collateral performance. We're deploying our pre-recession playbook now, not later — discipline purchased early is cheap; purchased late, it isn't available at any price.
Two hurdles in front of the economy, that once they are behind us, will open the economy up and reduce inflation, in my opinion. Those are the Iran war and the mid-term elections.
Survey Demographics
Market Segment
- Bank 60%
- Captive 15%
- Independent 25%
- Other 0%
Market Segments Based on Transaction Size of New Business Volume
- Large-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size Over $5 Million) 10%
- Middle-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $250,000 – $5 Million) 40%
- Small-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $25,000 – $249,999) 50%
- Micro-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Less Than $25,000) 0%
Organization Size
- Under $50 Million 4.8%
- $50 Million – $250 Million 14.3%
- $250 Million – $1 Billion 23.8%
- Over $1 Billion 57.1%
