Washington, DC, September 17, 2026 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) today released its September 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market is 62.4, unchanged from the August index, and within the elevated range of the past seven months. The index provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion equipment finance industry.
September 2026 Survey Results:
- Business Conditions – When assessing the next four months, 26.1% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, unchanged from August. Those who believe business conditions will remain the same increased to 69.6% from 65.2% the previous month. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen decreased to 4.4% from 8.7% in August.
- Capex Demand – For the next four months, 31.8% of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (up from 26.1% in August). Additionally, 63.6% expect demand to remain the same (down from 73.9% last month), and 4.6% believe demand will decline (up from none in August).
- Access to Capital – Over the next four months, 27.3% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, a decrease from 33.3% in August. The majority (72.7%) anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, an increase from 66.7% the previous month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from August.
- Employment – Regarding employment over the next four months, 47.8% of executives expect to hire more employees, an increase from 42.9% in August. Another 47.8% foresee no change in headcount (down from 52.7% last month), and 4.4% expect to hire fewer employees (relatively unchanged from August).
- U.S. Economy – Of the respondents, 4.2% evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” down slightly from 4.8 in August; 91.7% assess it as “fair,” down from 95.2% last month; and 4.2% evaluate it as “poor,” up from none in August.
- Economic Outlook – Over the next six months, 20.8% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” an increase from 18.2% in August. Another 54.2% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” down from 59.1% last month; and 25% believe economic conditions will worsen, an increase from 22.7% in August.
- Business Development Spending – Over the next six months, 39.1% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, a decrease from 40.9% in August. Those who believe there will be “no change” in business development spending increased to 60.9 from 59.1% the previous month, and none believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from August.
September 2026 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:
Business needs to continue. Through the noise of foreign affairs, tariffs, and mid-term elections, there is still opportunity. The key is recognizing borrowers who have prepared and continue to perform over time. We can't predict the future, but we can prepare for it.
While uncertainty continues on several fronts, 2026 has been and continues to be a solid year in commercial equipment finance. Originations are good, portfolio performance is good, access to capital is good. Earning share of wallet is competitive which is good for the business, and the overall business continues to grow. I think we will have a strong finish to Q3, and I am optimistic about the opportunities in the fourth quarter.
Outside of geopolitical considerations, I believe the industry is facing meaningful pent-up demand. Many organizations have deferred equipment purchases for an extended period, and the continued maintenance of aging equipment is becoming increasingly uneconomical and operationally unsustainable. As a result, I expect a wave of replacement and modernization activity as businesses move to invest in newer, more efficient equipment to support growth and productivity.
We're seeing tariffs work through the market in three places at once: acquisition cost, residual value, and decision timing. New equipment came up in price, used equipment softened, and the spread between the two is where lenders will find out how disciplined they really were. Meanwhile buyers hesitate on the large-ticket decisions because they can't underwrite their own input costs. At Elevex, we've responded by getting more specific — shorter terms and tighter triggers where the asset is technology-heavy, advance rates anchored to real liquidation value on used iron, and a willingness to stay at the table with operators through a cycle they didn't create. Equipment finance has always been a business of absorbing volatility our customers can't. Tariffs just made that job more visible.
About ELFA
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) represents financial services companies and manufacturers in the $1.3 trillion U.S. equipment finance sector. ELFA’s over 600 member companies provide essential financing that helps businesses acquire the equipment they need to operate and grow. Learn how equipment finance contributes to businesses’ success, U.S. economic growth, manufacturing and jobs at www.elfaonline.org.
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Media Contact: Jane Esworthy, VP, Communications & Marketing, ELFA, [email protected]
